Economics Natural Rate of Unemployment - 2526 Words

Natural rate of unemployment The natural rate of unemployment (sometimes called the structural unemployment rate) is a concept of economic activity developed in particular by Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps in the 1960s, both recipients of the Nobel prize in economics. In both cases, the development of the concept is cited as a main motivation behind the prize.[1][2] It represents the hypothetical unemployment rate consistent with aggregate production being at the long-run level. This level is consistent with aggregate production in the absence of various temporary frictions such as incomplete price adjustment in labor and goods markets. The natural rate of unemployment therefore corresponds to the unemployment rate prevailing under a†¦show more content†¦Of course, the prices a company charges are closely connected to the wages it pays. Figure 1 shows a typical Phillips curve fitted to data for the United States from 1961 to 1969. The close fit between the estimated curve and the data encouraged many economists, following the lead of Paul Samuelson and Robert Solow, to treat the Phillips curve as a sort of menu of policy options. For example, with an unemployment rate of 6 percent, the government might stimulate the economy to lower unemployment to 5 percent. Figure 1 indicates that the cost, in terms of higher inflation, would be a little more than half a percentage point. But if the government initially faced lower rates of unemployment, the costs would be considerably higher: a reduction in unemployment from 5 to 4 percent would imply more than twice as big an increase in the rate of inflation—about one and a quarter percentage points. At the height of the Phillips curve’s popularity as a guide to policy, Edmund Phelps and Milton Friedman independently challenged its theoretical underpinnings. They argued that well-informed, rational employers and workers would pay attention only to real wages—the inflation-adjusted purchasing power of money wages. In their view, real wages would adjust to make the supply of labor equal to the demand for labor, and the unemployment rate would then stand at a level uniquely associated with that real wage—the â€Å"natural rate† of unemployment. Figure 1 The Phillips Curve, 1961–1969Show MoreRelated The Phillips Curve Essay1316 Words   |  6 PagesEconomists agree that unemployment and inflation are two of the major macroeconomic problems of the twentieth century. If a relationship between the two existed then this would be a major break through for the macro management of the economy. Phillips work was empirical - started with evidence and worked towards a theory. The causation for the Phillips theory was that the level of unemployment caused the rate of change in money wages to be what it was. 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